New scientific research published this week reveals the chances of the South Island’s alpine fault generating a damaging earthquake within the next 50 years are much higher than previously thought. 

The research, led by Te Herenga Waka–Victoria University of Wellington senior lecturer Dr Jamie Howarth, shows the probability of that earthquake occurring in the next 50 years has increased from 30 per cent to about 75 per cent.

There is also an 82 per cent chance the earthquake will be of magnitude-8 or higher.  

The alpine fault is a geological fault which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island which produces a significant fault (magnitude 8 or above) every 300 years on average. The last major rupture occurred in 1717.

The predicted major earthquake on the alpine fault would shake the whole South Island and would be felt as far away as Sydney. 

Parts of Queenstown Lakes, including Lakes Wakatipu, Wānaka, Hāwea, and more, would be at risk from tsunami induced by massive landslips into the water. Overall, less damage should occur in Wanaka than Queenstown, and much less in Cromwell.

Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi responded to the latest research, saying it reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes.

“While we can never predict when an earthquake will happen, we have known for some time that the alpine fault is capable of generating a severe earthquake and our emergency response and management system has been developed on this basis,” he said.

“The new science doesn’t change the likely impacts for communities in the region. It does, however, confirm our approach to, and investment in, hazard-specific planning and earthquake awareness education has been the right one.”

The New Zealand government, Emergency Management Otago (EMO) and the other five South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) groups, and the science community have been working to improve the capability as a nation to respond and recover from a future alpine fault earthquake with AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8), an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement.

AF8 continues to work to build collective resilience and preparedness to the next major South Island earthquake event, and EMO said this new research serves as a good reminder of the importance of being prepared for an emergency. 

“While we can’t predict when an earthquake will happen, this is a timely reminder of the importance of preparing for an emergency and the steps we can take to keep ourselves, our whānau and our communities safe,” EMO said in a statement.

EMO recommends these steps:

• Practice ‘Drop, Cover and Hold’ regularly - it stops you being knocked over, makes you a smaller target for falling and flying objects and protects your head, neck and vital organs. 
• Make a plan to get home, work and community ready so that wherever you might be, you’re prepared and talk about it with your loved ones so that everyone knows what to do.
• Create or update your emergency kit today with supplies to last you at least seven days. You can either make your own or buy a kit and add your own items to it.
• Make your home safer by ensuring objects that could fall and hurt people are either relocated or fixed/fastened to the wall or floor.
• Sign up to Otago Gets Ready for text/email alerts (this is one of Civil Defence’s tools to provide advice for emergency situations that affect you personally including floods, fires etc.). It also gives you the opportunity to list any skills, resources or vulnerabilities which helps Civil Defence to plan and get help more quickly to where it’s needed most. 
• There’s a lot more information on earthquakes and how to prepare here.

PHOTO: Supplied