Fewer snow days and less snow for our ski fields, that’s the message from NIWA hydrological forecasting scientist Jono Conway.

Speaking at Wao’s monthly Green Drinks event in September, Jono said the warming climate will mean fewer snow days at moderate elevations where our ski fields are. 

“For a one and a half degree change, a moderate degree of warming, we are seeing the snowline rise 200 metres,” he said. 

“So that is rising from about 1,200 metres now to 1,400 metres over this century.”

Jono is researching the impact a warming climate has on our glaciers and snowfall and uses physics-based computer modelling along with a network of snow and ice weather stations throughout the Southern Alps.

“Those stations give us a ground truth on whether our models are realistic,” Jono said.

“We are looking at what is going to happen in the next 30-80 years, specifically in winter.”

The modelling looks at a range of scenarios from a half degree of warming up to the worst case scenario of two to three degrees of warming, and the impact a warming climate has on our local winter weather.

“The general trend is it’s getting wetter and in the case of high emissions [worst case] it is getting a lot wetter in winter,” Jono said.

“Even though we’re getting more precipitation in winter we are getting less snow cover days at all elevations within the area from Treble Cone to the Remarkables.

“Our ski fields are not high enough to benefit from the increased precipitation falling as snow.”

Although we can expect fewer snow cover days, Jono said the wild card is the role of extreme weather events.

“We had two big systems this year in June and July which delivered a massive amount of snow and made for a great ski season,” he said. 

“We are expecting extremes to be far more common as the century progresses.”

This winter’s temperature was a degree above normal in Wānaka with a record amount of rainfall, however the extreme events delivered a deeper snow pack.

Previous: Wānaka’s wettest winter on record

“I think we’ll probably see more seasons like this season but on average I don’t think the future climate is going to deliver more snow at elevations we ski at,” Jono said.

Wao is a registered charitable trust based in Wānaka which helps communities shape a sustainable future. They organise a number of events including a six day summit running from October 25-30, 2022. Tickets are available here.

PHOTO: Supplied