The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) released its winter outlook on Friday (May 30), predicting a warmer than average winter with above or normal rainfall for the Southern Lakes region.

NIWA’s principal forecasting scientist Chris Brandolino said, while NIWA doesn’t explicitly predict snow, if it is warmer than average “it may be a bit tough to get low elevation snow events”.

“The odds for a banner snow year [are] not looking ripe,” Chris said.

“There’s going to be a lack of southerlies this season.”

Chris said that while snow to low elevations is less likely, it may be little changed above 1,500 metres.

Cardona Alpine Resort’s base elevation is 1,670 metres, the Snow Farm’s is 1,520 metres, and Treble Cone’s is 1,260 metres.

Despite predicting generally warmer temperatures, Chris said the Southern Lakes will still have cold snaps and frosts but they will be less frequent. 

There will be a cold snap at the end of this week (June 6-9), he said.

“We could see some snow - good news for you - to low elevation for the South Island.”

NIWA’s forecast stated that ocean temperatures around New Zealand are unusually warm, and airflow over winter is expected to be primarily from the north, which makes it hard to find any long or persistent cold snaps in the next three months.

Read more about NIWA’s winter forecast here.

IMAGE: Supplied