It’s been a turbulent year for the property market, but what’s to come in 2023?

Two local real estate agents have weighed in on what they think the next year could bring for the Upper Clutha market and how it could affect buyers and sellers. 

Proppys Wānaka co-founder Hannah Walker said she predicts house prices will remain flat and sales volumes will be down in the first quarter of 2023, but things will start to pick up as the year progresses.

“The market has just seen a new increase in the OCR which is weighing heavily on people's minds - especially finance-dependent buyers,” Hannah told the Wānaka App.

“Values are not in free fall like during the GFC; they are correcting to where they would have been without the pandemic in the equation.”

A fall in prices is not bad news for everyone, she added.

For buyers - and particularly first-home buyers - the current market is “great news”.

“Yes, you will pay more interest but it’s not too unusual when you look at historical interest rates in NZ…Get your pre-approvals ready - there is good buying to be had.”

The same ‘good buying’ advice also applies to well-heeled buyers who aren’t limited by the finance restrictions challenges of the average househunter.

But - as Real Estate Institute of New Zealand regional director Gail Hudson pointed out - many buyers are still hesitant to make offers because they believe prices will fall further.

The appeal of Queenstown Lakes to the well-to-do buyer has helped prevent the significant sales price drops that have hit much of the country this year, as Real Estate Institute of New Zealand regional director Gail Hudson has said.

This, in addition to the booked-out builders and all the large scale commercial projects, is reason for optimism, Harcourts Wānaka sales consultant Chris Wright says.

“There are plenty of motives for people to be moving, purchasing and investing into the region at present and with the major projects and development very much visible and in the pipeline…” he said.

Like Hannah, Chris believes pre-Covid prices would be maintained, and he said savvy buyers could see now as a good time to get into the local market.

There is some “potential turbulence” on the horizon - Chris recommended homeowners take the time now to think over their mortgage interest rates.

“Rental prices are on the rise also so it makes sense for those with mortgages and needing to reset their rates to consider the term of their fixing, to ride the potential turbulence that Wānaka or surrounds may or may not experience,” he said.

Chris said some economists were predicting a “bounce back” as soon as 2024. 

That’s in line with Hannah’s prediction, which is based on a suspicion that the ORC interest rates will start going down again from mid-2023.

“I think if I was a betting person I’d say the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will overcook the OCR rate interest rate hikes,” she said. 

“In my opinion they have not given interest rates enough time for them to embed, so I feel they may be forced to drop the interest rate hikes come mid-2023.

“Let’s see if I am right.”

PHOTO: Wānaka App