It’s obvious to everyone in Wānaka area that our population is growing, but what’s surprising is that there are some quite different views about how quickly we are growing.

I was involved in discussions with the Ministry of Education in 2015 when we were looking at future schooling requirements for the area. 

We were told at the time that there was evidence that Wānaka was no longer growing. The numbers that were being used were the 2008 and 2013 census figures. 

Local school boards were able to give the very clear message that these numbers did not give the full picture and the ministry agreed that new schooling provision was needed. The ministry then produced a growth plan for the area in 2019. In this plan they stated that the Wānaka area could reach as many as 16,800 people by 2028. 

Andrew Howard

We exceeded 17,200 late last 2023.

Read more: Upper Clutha population pushes past 17,000

So, we are currently growing at about twice the pace the ministry expected which has significant implications for our growing schools.

Queenstown Lakes District Council is currently predicting 2.2 percent growth per annum over the next 10 years. This is the high growth scenario provided by Stats NZ. 

Yet we know that between 2013 and 2023 we experienced 6.2 percent growth per annum. 

Using council figures we would expect the Wānaka area to be home to around 23,000 people by 2033. Using the historical growth figures (and I don’t see any reason this will change) I would expect us to be around 33,000 by 2033. 

This is a massive difference that has serious implications. 

Unfortunately, organisations like the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health, and Waka Kotahi will use the forecast growth to plan infrastructure for our region. 

We are seeing how inadequate this is through roading, housing, medical care and many other issues. 

With the long term plan coming up for consultation it is vital that we, as a community, use every opportunity to express to council and other agencies that this growth is real and dramatic. 

Andrew Howard is a Wānaka retail and HR manager; a former chair of the Wānaka Business Chamber and former board chair of Wānaka Primary School.

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