Tourism, economic activity and employment are likely to feel the greatest impact from the current pandemic, according to a report commissioned by Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC).

Economists at data analytics company Infometrics have released their early modelling on the economic impacts COVID-19 could have on this district.

The report suggests international tourists could return gradually from 2021, but the numbers may take years to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. 

The district’s economic output (gross domestic product) over the next year is shown to potentially drop by around 23 per cent and over 7,000 jobs in the district could be lost.

QLDC mayor Jim Boult said while the report paints a bleak picture, the analysis is based on a ‘do nothing’ scenario and we are already making big steps as a district to improve our future.

Jim Boult says he is more optimistic about when international tourists might return to Queenstown Lakes than the modelling is. PHOTO: Supplied

“We will continue to support those who need it during this tough time but we are already well underway working with government, businesses and the community to support initiatives which bring jobs back and steer us towards and help to shape our new normal,” Jim said.

He said predicting how and when domestic and international tourists return to Queenstown Lakes is a tough game, “but we are more hopeful than the research on this front”.

Wanaka saw an increase in tourists during Queen’s Birthday Weekend. PHOTO: Wanaka App

“The projections show that the timing of a trans-Tasman bubble, or the extent to which Kiwis travel down here, could make the difference of nearly 1,000 jobs.”

Membership of two recovery taskforces recently announced by council will have a strong focus on diversification, he said. 

Related: Locals selected for economic recovery taskforce

“We are going to have to look at business in new ways. We can develop our economy to be more diverse, sustainable and resilient and aligned to the effects of a changing climate.”

The Infometrics report also outlines that, without intervention, low-skilled workers are likely to be the most affected by job losses, especially in the accommodation and food service industries, as well as food trade workers, cleaners and laundry workers.

As part of the response to these issues, the council has established community hubs in the Upper Clutha and Wakatipu Basin (Frankton) to support ways for the community to connect with welfare support and find information about gaining new employment or diversifying their skill set.

'Low-skilled' workers in the accommodation and food service industries are likely to be the most affected by job losses. PHOTO: Supplied

QLDC is also waiting on a final decision regarding the funding applications to the Crown Infrastructure Partners for shovel-ready projects which, if successful, will support more than 1,600 jobs over the next few years and boost the economy, Jim said.

A $1.4M grant from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment will help to create redeployment options for some of the district’s workers who have lost their jobs.

Jim said he was also very encouraged by the efforts of the local chambers of commerce and the regional tourism operators to assist businesses, and actively seeking to be innovative in promoting the district to the rest of New Zealand.

Council will soon be launching an online ‘ideas portal’ to allow locals to participate in the process of generating and progressing recovery ideas for the district.