The Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC) says new population predictions indicate a slowdown in the district’s population growth, but chief executive Mike Theelen says this will be short lived.

“While COVID-19 will have a significant impact on our population in the short-term, this doesn’t mean our district’s ongoing development will stop,” Mike said.

While the population growth might not happen as fast as it might have done without the economic impacts of COVID-19, the district continues to grow, and the pace is expected to pick up again.

“Our modelling expects that ongoing family formation and migration from people across Aotearoa New Zealand and elsewhere who see the district as a great place to live, work, and play will ensure that population trends recover over time,” Mike said.

Property information provided by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed the number of properties sold in Wanaka this July increased by 23.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. 

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Whether these properties are for permanent dwellings or investment properties/holiday homes is not provided in the data, it does indicate interest in Wanaka continues to remain strong. 

At Wanaka Primary School, principal Wendy Bamford said the school roll had gone up substantially since lockdown.

“We have had some increases we weren't expecting,” Wendy said. “We have had New Zealanders returning from overseas e.g. America, Bali, UK, Dubai, and we have several families from Auckland arriving in the next fortnight.”

Rolls have increased unexpectedly since lockdown at two local primary schools. PHOTO: Supplied

The school had so far had 16 unexpected new arrivals and 17 expected new entrants.

“We continue to receive regular enquiries including a couple of families from Australia, when they are able to travel,” she added. 

Hawea Flat School principal Tania Pringle said the school is continuing to grow and there has been a significant increase of enrolments from families moving from out of the district. 

“A third of all our enrolments (seven families) since returning from lockdown have been from families new to the area. This compares with an eighth of all enrolment prior to lockdown. 

“We are continuing to field regular enquiries from families looking to shift into the area immediately or in the new year. These enquiries come from across New Zealand as well as a number of people looking to return from overseas.”

Tania said since lockdown only one child has left the school to move out of the district. 

Conversely, Mount Aspiring College’s school roll had decreased slightly: On March 1 the school roll sat at 1,133; by July 1 it was down 10 to 1,223.

The biggest factor expected to slow down the increase in population in the district was the economic impacts of tourism and how that would affect jobs.

“Tourism accounts for 64 per cent of all jobs in the district, and without international tourists it’s evident there will be a knock-on effect in terms of the district’s population figures,” a QLDC representative said.

A report commissioned by QLDC and completed by Infometrics in May predicts an economic decline of 25.3 per cent, or 7,500 jobs lost, before March 2021.

But there is plenty to suggest the population increases will pick up the pace again, says Mike, who expects a slowdown over the next ten years then an increase in the 20 years following. 

“Both historic and current patterns suggest the district can have continued confidence about its future population,” he said.