Otago will face warmer temperatures, fewer frosts and much less snowfall as a result of climate change, which will lead to increased risk of flood and drought, coastal erosion and inundation, and wildfires, a new report has found.

Natural ecosystems, water quality and residents’ wellbeing will be some of the casualties of these changes.

The report was commissioned by the Otago Regional Council (ORC), which said the Climate Change Risk Assessment Report is a milestone report on the impacts of climate change and its associated risks and opportunities for the region.

“This report gives us a clear picture of the dramatic ways in which climate change is set to affect our region over the coming decades,” ORC councillor Alexa Forbes said.

“Climate change will exacerbate existing challenges and introduce new ones. Its effects will be felt in every part of Otago, across our natural and built environments, economy, governance, and society.”

The report is based on the climate change projection study by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), and more than 70 groups and specialists were invited to contribute.

It will also lead to more periods of drought, which will in turn affect water quality.

It provides an overview of how Otago may be affected as a consequence of climate change-related hazards, and highlights risks across five domains, including natural environment; built environment; economy; society and governance.

ORC operations general manager Dr Gavin Palmer said the risk assessment added a closer, regional lens to the Ministry for the Environment’s National Climate Change Risk Assessment, released in August 2020.

“The report uses temperature projections under a particular climate change scenario to assess risks in three timeframes: the present day, mid-century, and by the end of the century,” he said.

“Much of what we do in Otago hinges on the region’s climate, so we need to have a clear picture, collectively, of how that climate is changing.”

That picture shows the impact of climate change will be wide ranging, presenting risks to the terrestrial ecosystems (from increasing temperatures, changes in rainfall and reduced snow and ice), freshwater ecosystems (from increasing temperatures and extreme weather events), coastal, inland and alpine wetland ecosystems (from drought, higher temperatures, changes in rainfall and reduced snow and ice), to Otago water quality and quantity (rom changes in rainfall, higher temperatures, flooding, drought and reduced snow and ice), and native ecosystems (posed by increasing threats from invasive plants, pests and disease due to climate change).

It is also expected to have “major implications for the health of communities,” the report said, with the most vulnerable and marginalised the hardest hit, and also notes that “new vulnerabilities and inequities are likely to emerge as climate change impacts are experienced more widely”.

Alexa said the report provided important information to help guide the ORC and others.

“We anticipate that planners and decision-makers at local councils and in industry sectors will be using this information for years,” Alexa said.

The ORC is planning a public engagement campaign designed to interactively communicate the findings with stakeholders across Otago. 

“This will raise awareness of the risks of climate change, as well as create opportunities for ORC, communities, and organisations to work together in the face of climate change,” the ORC said in a statement.

Read the full report here.

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